(One cheap point for BN. Image source: TheNutGraph)
I am a pro-opposition for the obvious reasons, so this is a sad day for me
By now, everyone know just how well the Pakatan Rakyat government got screwed – first by their own selfish politicians, then by Barisan Nasional and finally by the Sultan (he has his own good reasons, we are sure). Most of us here had hoped that the Sultan would have agreed to have snap election and get the people’s fresh mandate over the issue but still the final say is still with the Sultan and we have to respect that.
When PR said that they’d form a govt with BN reps jumping, Anwar was ready to seek the approval of the King but now when PR reps jump, they’re crying foul, thinking that the Sultan shouldn’t be approving such a govt.
That is correct indeed – when Anwar threatened to covertly take over the Federal Government through defections, many of us supported it vigorously and waited for the day to happen and when Anwar backed down, once again got very disappointed and patiently waited for the historical day. But when Barisan Nasional did it in reality in the state of Perak but on a smaller scale, many of us cried foul and disappointed on the outcome.
So, what went wrong? Did the Pakatan Rakyat screw things up themselves? Was the State Government was sabotaged by unconstitutional moves?
Even from the beginning, the Pakatan Rakyat was handicapped. They started with a very slim margin win over Barisan Nasional in the last general elections and any defections would have crumpled the Pakatan Rakyat anyway and that is what had happened. In April last year, one Pakatan Rakyat politician almost gave us the scare.
With both the PR and BN having 28 seats each, the right thing to do would have been to call for fresh elections. BN is boasting that the 3 “independent” assemblymen is backing the BN but what is the guarantee that they or anyone from BN would not jump ship in the near future and cause another crisis to brew in Perak?
TheNutGraph analysed the situation as follows:-
Scenario 1: A BN state government
Should a BN government be installed in Perak as widely speculated, the state is likely to sink into deeper political crisis. The Pakatan Rakyat coalition with its 28 seats will surely look for every opportunity to topple the BN government, no less by resorting to more defections. The return of the Bota state assemblyperson to Umno’s fold merely suggests the resale value of lawmakers, not their depreciation.
Scenario 2: A grand coalition
In comparison, a BN-Pakatan Rakyat grand coalition government would be less harmful. But the state of Perak will pay a dear price in economic development. For starters, the two coalitions would surely quarrel over the allocation of executive portfolios, especially the lucrative ones like land and industry. Most dreadfully, given the old scores from bitter fights, the executive councillors would likely undermine the work and plans of their colleagues from the other camp.
Scenario 3: Snap poll
In contrast, a snap poll is the best way to end the existing instability and allow the new government to get on with business. Why? A snap poll called in this circumstance is almost certain to return a stronger government, whether it is the Pakatan Rakyat or the BN. The electorate would make their choice based on who should run the state.
Of course this analysis came before the Sultan’s final say – asking the current MB to resign. Was the Sultan upset with Pakatan Rakyat on something? Recall back on the time when Pakatan Rakyat won the State Government, the in-fighting between its component parties almost brought the house down. They could not even agree on who will be the MB and of course we had the DAP openly wanted to boycott the swearing ceremony, which I am pretty sure, to the dissatisfaction of the Sultan.
So, if the Sultan had agreed to the fresh elections, can we expect the same idiocy to be repeated? Nizar may get his “old” job back and DAP may not openly disagree on the swearing ceremony this time but that does not mean they would not have other problems. Would the new candidates be trusted not to jump ship in the near future? I believe that Pakatan Rakyat after this episode would have wised up by now
But still it would have been easier if the Sultan has agreed to the fresh election and passed the decision back to the people. After all, the people of Perak did give the edge to the opposition in the last general election and gave them the State Government seat. Certainly had not expected the BN to sneak in through the back door.